For those that are interested, the latest issue of North American Whitetail Magazine has a featured article on Pa's deer management program.

Nice article but I was a little stunned by a comment by Chris Rosenberry.  He states that the current buck to doe ratio in Pa is now 2 does for every buck??

I find that hard to believe as even high fenced hunting operations strive for that kind of ratio under intense management.  

I do not think our ratio even comes close to that.  Maybe I am wrong but I just think he (Chris) loses some credibility with that one. And credibilty is what the PGC needs.

Anyone have some thoughts on that or have read the article.  In my area of 2A I would guestimate our ratio at 10/1 which, by the way, is way better than what it was.  

--Last edited by dpms on 2007-08-17 07:35:26 --

I don't have the data close by but statistics/research pretty much proves a minimum ratio that is impossible to go below in a breeding population.
It is based on the known factor of basically a 50/50 birth rate for buck and doe fawns.

Roughly:
Say you have 100 breeding-age does.
Half are young does that will only have one fawn.
Half are mature does that will have two fawns each.
For simplicity, lets say these are all does that were bred successfully.
Again, for simplicity, lets say we then killed 100-percent of the bucks.
Group one, (the young does), will each have one fawn, that equates to 50 fawns, which further breaks down to 25 buck fawns and 25 doe fawns.
Group two, (older does), will each have two fawns. That comes out to 50 buck fawns and 50 doe fawns.
So now our total of fawns is 75 bucks and 75 does.
Add into the herd count the 100 breeding does.
With all deer counted, there is now 175 does and 75 bucks.
That is a 2.3:1 D/B ratio.(2.3 to 1)

There are other multipliers that take into account some of the variables, such as; a slightly different than 50-50 birth drop, mortality differences, unbred does, surviving breeder bucks, button bucks and so forth.

However, this number is often misused by those who point to Alt and say this is proof that Alt was lying when he said our buck/doe ratio was poor.
Deer managers commonly use a "breeding ratio," which is a completely different thing and is determined by adult buck survival rates.
"High Fence" operations and QDM managers are looking at survivability of huntable, breeding bucks.

Yep, I am finding alot of data supporting your scenario.  It does seem to make sense on paper.

My dilemma is trying to figure out my past observations in various areas around the state.  

Before HR/AR I would see many more does to bucks, maybe 15-20/1 or so.  I understand that some might have been seen twice. Also, most of the buck herd was comprised of young animals which haven't learned to hide as well as the older bucks we have now.  I have a hard time believing that our buck to doe at that time was at worst 1/3 because of my current observations.

Currently in the areas I hunt, I would guestimate 1/10 or so. But the buck herd is alot older now so the bucks are not so easily seen.  Therefore the true ratio may be closer to 1/3 or so.

If the true ratio is 1/2 now as stated by the PGC how is it possible that even 10-20 years ago it was 1/3 at worst based on my observations which many will agree with epecially since at that time the buck herd comprised mostly of yearling which were easily seen and accounted for?

Now that I have thouroughly confused myself Anyone want to tackle my question.

How many deer do we have in Pa ??
What is the buck to doe ratio ??

Two of the most common asked questions by Pa deer hunters....

and in my opinion two of the questions that are IMPOSSIBBLE to answer as far as a state wide figure for either...

Every area is different...

PLUS it is much harder to see bucks than does when trying to count ratios in any area.

Bucks travel and "LIVE" in different areas than does..especially at this time of year.

For the past three months I have been conducting one hour dicussions at our local club about the deer and the deer manangement program the PGC has established here in Pa and especially the deer situation in our area of 2F..

While bowbum uses a good BASIC explaination there are some more things to consider that are not often discussed in that example...

The first that comes to mind is fawn recruitment....and is VERY important...

fawn recruitment is the number of fawns born in the spring that reach the age of 6 monthsthis also varies from DMU to DMU.... and ranges from 28% to 50% as an average.

Here are some more interesting facts I have gathered from studies and varies articles about doe conception and reproduction..

...Does that are bred in the first few hours of estrus and the last few hours produce more male off spring..

late - 81% more males than females
early - 14% more males than females

...young does (mature fawns and 1.5 year olds) almost always have only a single fawn and that fawn more often than not is a male.


...Older does have a tendency to produced twins but often are both female. And older does are usually the first to be bred..

... The average buck has only 2 fertile ejaculations a day.. thus may stay with a mature doe for 24-72 hours before returning to search for another female.. and in that time several other does may come into estrus and be unable to mate with that buck until they re-cycle in 28-30 days.

... The more does coming into estrus later in the year makes for more and more "pressure" on bucks in the area and as a result COULD result in that buck losing so much body fat and health he may not survive a bad winter...

... Fawns born from late season breeding have an even less chance of living to 6 months..

.. I believe predation from coyotes and black bears is taking an even bigger "bite" out of our fawns that the fawn studies are showing.. you must remember bear and coyote populatiions also vary greatly from DMU to DMU. In a study done in Michigan in an inclosure does were studied for reproduction and recruitment for 6 years... loss of fawns averaged about 11% IN THE INCLOSURE...Bears got into the inclosure three years of that study and the death rate of fawns increased to 28% in those three years.

... We are still only getting about 90% of mature does bred in the best areas of Pa.

..."road-kills" account for many fawns not making it to that 6 months stage and again that varies widely..

The number ONE thing that influences recruitment of fawns is habitat...

better habitat means better health of does enabling them to produce healthier fawns in the spring

habitat that contains alot of "growth" of trees and plants in that bushy range ( ground type cover) provide hiding places for fawns thus decreasing the odds of death from predation..


MORE LATER...

Keep it coming.  Interesting info.

I'll try to explain those two statement better....

Does come into estrus for a period of 24-48 hours, in which time they are receptive to breeding. Individual does, however come into estrus at differnt times, so the normal rut usually continues for more than a month.

If a female is not bred during her 1st estrus period she will"re-cycle" and come into estrus again 28-30 days later. A mature doe may be able to do this for 5 cycles. Only this makes the future fawns be born later and later into the summer with less chance of survival.

The earlier and later statement deals with at what time AFTER a doe enters estrus and is bred. If it is in the first 12 hours or the last 12 hours of her "estrus cycle"....chances are higher for a male fawn.

The statement about older does breeding first means this...

Older does 3 to 5 years of age are the first females to enter into estrus starting what we call "the rut period"...and thus are bred first. But older does in this age group have a tendency to produce multiply litters (usually twins) but most fawns are female.

The age of a doe can and does influence the sex of her young AND the time she is bred (during her estrus period) also influences the sex of her offspring.

I hope this makes those statements clearer...

Another little known fact....
A mother will eat the feces and urine of her young during the first few weeks after their birth.. thus trying to eliminate the odorss of young fawns in the area...

One more  

While a mother will "defend" her young she WILL NOT risk her life or any real danger to protect them... Better to lose a fawn than to be removed from the breeding population  or if they have twins better to run off with one rather than leave two with no mother at an early age...

There are endless variables, some of which are virtually meaningless but can be substantiated as trends or even fact, and some others which may contradict or mitigate other influences.

For instance, hunter preference may change from one area to another. The "don't kill the does" mind-set is alive and well in some micro-areas, and in others it is non-existent.
Pre-season/post-season, hard winter effects on males versus females..... on and on.

As Doc emphasized, I stuck with the BASICS to point out that B/D ratios are used in various ways; "Breeding Buck" ratio and "Herd Composition" ratios. Those two then can also be displayed in "Pre" or "post"-season categories.

Even what Doc showed about breeding trends for recruitment of male fawns, I think is affected by overall deer-density to available habitat.

But what "all" of that boils down to is something close to the range I posted. (I believe it might be like 50.8 percent of one and 49.2 percent of the other -- bottom line)

dpms    Another thing to look at when looking at numbers,    when we used to see 15 does for every buck, what if three of the does were button bucks?  Now the ratio is I2 : 4   (3 : 1 )  instead of 15 : 1   .  dd

Quote :

rich wrote : dpms    Another thing to look at when looking at numbers,    when we used to see 15 does for every buck, what if three of the does were button bucks? dd

The numbers I cited are 1.5 or older.  These formulas still do not explain to my satisfaction my observations in the SW where deer numbers are still very high.

I know in my back field I'm seeing at least five different does (1 has 2 fawns and 2 have one fawn and the other 2 which are small have none)and for bucks 1-10, 2-8s, 1-5, 1-4, 1-3, and a screwy button that I think is a year and a half. I'm still trying to get a picture of the ten.

Seems pretty close ratio to me...  

--Last edited by Buff on 2007-08-22 18:59:07 --

I think "seeing" could be very misleading. For a fact, I know it is misleading in my stomping grounds. I've had years where I've seen 11 or more bucks during summer and fall months. Some folks jumped on the wagon to tell me what my deer density was and to speculate to B/D ratios. Those were years when I had the only clover fields within a mile of here and I also had buckwheat planted.
After the 2006 hunting seasons were all closed I saw 4 different rack bucks regularly up until February and a few other 1-1/2 old bucks. Since then I've seen exactly 3 different bucks --- all scrubs, with the biggest being a very small 5-point.
It means nothing. I know there are many more bucks in the general area.
Bucks, by nature are more elusive, and older bucks especially, can be very nocturnal and avoid areas, even at night, near human occupancy.
In my area I attribute the lack of sightings to new interest in QDM. One nearby camp with 100 acres hired a farmer to do food plots on about 1/3rd of their land.
Another resident farm neighbor has cleared part of a wooded area and begun leaving small parcels, (1/2 acre), of buckwheat and oats to draw deer away from his main corn crops. Additionally, the 286 acre woods bordering me was logged last summer.
It all has an affect on "seeing" deer.  

--Last edited by bowbum on 2007-08-24 07:36:39 --